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As I wrote the title to this article Nolan Ryan Jersey , I imagined the entire fan base groaning at once. But, I think there is some validity to the idea, and we’ll deep dive into why. First off, let’s take a look..os NewsGame ThreadsHouston Astros Minor LeaguesAstros Game DayPodcastsSonny Gray: Potential Trade Target?New,86commentsByBrian Cohn (HH)Nov9, 2018,5:45am CSTShareTweetShareShareSonny Gray: Potential Trade Target?Follow Chat SportsAs I wrote the title to this article, I imagined the entire fan base groaning at once. But, I think there is some validity to the idea, and we’ll deep dive into why. First off, let’s take a look at who Sonny Gray is.Drafted in the 2011 Draft with the 18th overall pick, Sonny makes the most of his 5’10 frame. Just 2 years after being drafted, Sonny broke out with the A’s to the tune of a 5-3 record sporting a 2.67 ERA, which was supported by his 2.70 FIP in 64 IP. It felt like immediately, Gray gained recognition as an Ace. From 2013-2015, the ace moniker was deserved. He compiled the following stats:Baseball ReferenceBut then 2016 happened, in an injury riddled season, Gray had extremely disappointing results, ending in a 5.69 ERA. His ERA was a full run over the advanced stats (4.67 FIP / 4.13 xFIP). Suddenly there was questions about if Gray was truly an ace or if he was propped up by playing on a struggling team.The 2017 season http://www.astrosfanproshop.com/authentic-justin-verlander-jersey , in some ways, could be argued as a great bounce back season. His 3.55 ERA was not in the same conversation of his previous success, but still ranked him 21st best in the MLB for Starting Pitchers, while pitching a solid 162 IP. But there’s more to the eye than that. 2017 was the tale of 2 seasons: 2017 w/ A’s: 6-5 - 3.43 ERA, supported by a 3.25 FIP, 8.7 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and a WHIP of 1.1752017 w/ Yanks: 4-7 - 3.72 ERA, supported by a 4.87 FIP, 8.1 K/9, 3.7 BB/9 and WHIP of 1.255I think everyone would agree, that Gray was significantly worse on the Yankees than he was on the A’s. 2018 continued the slide from Ace to questioning if he should be in the rotation. His stats in 2018 were: 11-9, 4.90 ERA, 4.17 FIP, 8.5 K/9, 3.9 BB/9You can stop and look at this 2 ways. 1.) Gray is washed up, stick a fork in him. 2.) The Yankees Pitching coach is NOT Strom and had a negative effect on Gray. I was leaning towards theory 2, and was doing some research when I found that Fangraph’s did an article on exactly this topic:The Yankees No Fastball Approach May Be Breaking Sonny Gray”The problem is that Sonny Gray might need that fastball and sinker to be successful. Gray may have a great curveball and, at times, a wicked slider. But Gray might also be a pitcher who can’t be remade in a certain image. Gray was good because he was greater than the sum of his parts. Now the Yankees appear to be finding out what happens when you take some of those parts away. If Gray is going to rebound Carlos Lee Jersey , he might need the Yankees to stop tinkering and let him be himself.”Obviously, this is just a theory, and Fangraphs looked at this at a pretty high level, so I wanted to look at some detail on his pitches to see if he has lost something compared to 2015, which was his best year: Fastball - 2015 - 92.9 MPH (60.5%) / 2,362 RPM2018 - 93.3 MPH (35.1%) / 2,448 RPMSlider - 2015 - 86 MPH (15.9%) / 2,187 RPM2018 - 84.9 MPH (17%) / 2,454 RPMCurve - 2015 - 81.3 MPH (14%) / 2,602 RPM2018 - 82 MPH (22.8%) / 2,852 RPMNothing comes off as alarming when looking at his pitch speeds and his RPM, but of course those are not the only relevant components. LuckThe ever present but hard to measure / prove factor. Gray sported a .326 BABIP, the average for the league in 2018 was .293, so there were some indications of poor luck / defensive backing. Looking a little deeper, let’s compare his actual BA / OBP / SLUG and wOBA to what would be expected based on the batted ball profile (speed hit, launch angle, etc).ACTUAL - .267 / .349 / .419 with a .336 WOBAExpected - .247/ .329 / .380 with a .317 xWOBA While I would not say that it is the only factor, I do believe that Gray has a strong potential to regress back towards his career numbers based on these numbers. Age / ContractAs of the 7th, Gray is 29 years old. He is currently earning 6 http://www.astrosfanproshop.com/authentic-justin-verlander-jersey ,500,000 and despite having a poor year will surely be due an increase in arbitration. He does not alleviate long term needs in the rotation but is a cost controlled option.Trade ValueThe Yankees have made it clear that they would be looking to trade Gray, and one would have to imagine with both the reduction of club control and the disastrous last year, that Gray’s value has to have declined significantly. With that said, let’s look at what he was traded for a year and a half ago. 1.) James Kaprielian (best prospect) - Tommy John Surgery2.) Jorge Mateo (NYY - 8th best prospect) 3.) Dustin Fowler (4th best prospect) - Open Rupture Right Patella TendonSo let me know your thoughts. Vote and tell me if you would be interested in trading for him or not, and comment and either explain why you would/wouldn’t and who you would trade for him if so. Cron will start the year in Reno but could get a chance in 2019"If familiar with this series go ahead and skip to poll. If not, please read on.This series of articles will run from now until shortly before opening day. The purpose is to crowd source the D-Backs fans of this website to get a sense of how they feel about the prospects of each individual player on the 40 man roster. For this exercise I will only be using rate (average) stats and poll the readers on their sense of direction for that player’s level of basic performance, regardless of playing time expectations.I’m not including defense and base running, so no WAR here, as that is playing time dependent. You will be given two poll options:The player will either exceed the projection or under perform the projection by 5% for hitters OPS or 10% for pitchers ERA/FIP.There is no middle option to vote on. (Otherwise the majority of votes would end up agreeing with the projection).What I am looking for is if you are forced to indicate your sense of direction for the player, is it well over or under the projection?Other Points of note:Projections are the average of Steamer and ZIPS projections.(Click through for original tables)The projections draw on 3 or 4 year samples, weighting most recent seasons the heaviest, but I’m just showing 2018 and career statsin mini table below for simplicityThe player’s name is high lighted with a link to the player’s Baseball-Reference page.Click on that to see more player history and detailAge is the 2019 player age.Polls will run until mid March, so if you miss a player,you can go to the story stream box on the front page andfind a player you might have missed .Please let us know in the comments section your thoughts behind your vote. Thanks !CONTEXTKEVIN CRONAge 26Kevin Cron has a projection for a .723 OPS. Is he likely to come in over or under ?